macrohard

Symptoms of hollowing

Signs of a thinning state: services wearing out, people paying privately, citizens leaving, trust.

1 of 10 at level, 4 on watch.

At level means the sign is present: the reading is past its stated level. Watch means it has crossed an early line short of that level. Below level means neither.

Checked · this record as data

Symptoms of hollowing
Indicator Reading Status At level when Sources
Net loss of New Zealand citizens to migrationExit and entry 38,335Net loss of New Zealand citizens to migration (departures less arrivals), YE Jul 2026: 38,335.38,335 ÷ 19,662 (2002–2019 July-year average) = 1.95 times at level > 44,385watch > 19,662 YE Jul 2002 16,734 · YE Jul 2026 38,335 Watch Watch above 19,662 (the 2002–2019 July-year average); at level above 44,385 (the highest 12-month loss before 2020, year to February 2012). Stats NZ, International migration: July 2026 (14 Sep 2026); Stats NZ, Migration topic page (Sep 2026)derived · data to · stale
Cite Net loss of New Zealand citizens to migration

Net loss of New Zealand citizens to migration: 38,335 (YE Jul 2026). Source: Stats NZ, International migration: July 2026 (14 Sep 2026). Via macrohard.nz, The Hollowing Index, data to 2026-07-31, checked 2026-09-30. https://macrohard.nz/symptoms#nz-citizen-net-migration
Elite entry: investor residence applicantsExit and entry 1,9971,997 investor applicants accepted for processing in FY2025/26, against a 2016/17–2021/22 average of 1,113 a year.2016/17–2021/22 investor applicants: mean 1,113; 1,997 ÷ 1,113 = 1.79 times at level > 2,226watch > 1,462 FY2016/17 1,293 · FY2025/26 1,997 Watch Watch above 1,462 (the highest year 2016–2022); at level above 2,226 (twice the 2016–2022 average). Immigration New Zealand, residence applications accepted (Sep 2026); Immigration New Zealand, investor category statisticsderived · data to
Cite Elite entry: investor residence applicants

Elite entry: investor residence applicants: 1,997 (FY2025/26). Source: Immigration New Zealand, residence applications accepted (Sep 2026). Via macrohard.nz, The Hollowing Index, data to 2026-09-07, checked 2026-09-30. https://macrohard.nz/symptoms#investor-visa-elite-entry
Elective treatment within four monthsPublic goods 72.6%72.6% of patients on the elective waitlist had waited under four months at the end of 2026-06. The level was 97.9% in June 2017. at level < 70watch < 95 2015-06 99.4 · 2026-06 72.6 Watch Watch below 95%; at level below the government’s own 70% milestone. Health New Zealand, Health targets 5 and 10 years of results Q4 2025/26 (2026); Health New Zealand, Health targets performance resources 2025/26; DPMC, Target 2 factsheet March 2026measured · data to
Cite Elective treatment within four months

Elective treatment within four months: 72.6% (2026-06). Source: Health New Zealand, Health targets 5 and 10 years of results Q4 2025/26 (2026). Via macrohard.nz, The Hollowing Index, data to 2026-06-30, checked 2026-09-30. https://macrohard.nz/symptoms#elective-treatment-wait
Years until electricity supply falls below the security standardPublic goods 3 yrsYears until supply from existing and committed projects falls below the 14% winter energy standard, in the system operator’s SoSA 2026 reference case: 3.2029 (first year below 14% on committed supply) − 2026 = 3 years at level < 3watch < 6 SoSA 2017 2 · SoSA 2026 3 Watch Watch at five years or less (the median lead time across 2017–2026 assessments); at level at two years or less. Transpower (System Operator), Security of Supply Assessment 2026 final report (29 Jun 2026); Transpower, Security of supply page (2026)derived · data to
Cite Years until electricity supply falls below the security standard

Years until electricity supply falls below the security standard: 3 yrs (SoSA 2026). Source: Transpower (System Operator), Security of Supply Assessment 2026 final report (29 Jun 2026). Via macrohard.nz, The Hollowing Index, data to 2026-06-29, checked 2026-09-30. https://macrohard.nz/symptoms#electricity-dry-year-margin
Council drinking-water supplies with a protozoal barrierPublic goods 90%90% of council supplies had a protozoal treatment barrier in 2025. at level < 84watch < 90 2023 76 · 2025 90 Below level Watch on any fall below 90%; at level on a fall below the 2024 level of 84%. Taumata Arowai, Drinking Water Regulation Report 2025 (Sep 2026)measured · data to
Cite Council drinking-water supplies with a protozoal barrier

Council drinking-water supplies with a protozoal barrier: 90% (2025). Source: Taumata Arowai, Drinking Water Regulation Report 2025 (Sep 2026). Via macrohard.nz, The Hollowing Index, data to 2025-12-31, checked 2026-09-30. https://macrohard.nz/symptoms#drinking-water-protozoal-barrier
Adults with private health insurancePrivate substitutes 35%35% of adults had private health insurance in 2024/25. Between 2011/12 and 2023/24 the share ranged from 33.2% to 36.5%. at level > 38watch > 36.5 2011/12 36 · 2024/25 35 Below level Watch above 36.5% (the top of the 2011–2025 range); at level above 38%. Ministry of Health, NZ Health Survey 2024/25 Annual Data Explorer, time-series CSV; Ministry of Health, Annual Update of Key Results 2024/25measured · data to
Cite Adults with private health insurance

Adults with private health insurance: 35% (2024/25). Source: Ministry of Health, NZ Health Survey 2024/25 Annual Data Explorer, time-series CSV. Via macrohard.nz, The Hollowing Index, data to 2025-06-30, checked 2026-09-30. https://macrohard.nz/symptoms#private-health-insurance-adults
Trust gap: the civil service against political partiesIdeology and division 26 ptsTrust in the civil service minus trust in political parties: 26 percentage points (2025 wave).62% − 36% = 26 percentage points at level < 10watch < 20 Below level Watch below 20 points (about the OECD average gap); at level below 10 (the narrowest national gaps in 2025). OECD, Survey on Drivers of Trust in Public Institutions 2026 Results: New Zealand country note (29 Jun 2026)derived · data to
Cite Trust gap: the civil service against political parties

Trust gap: the civil service against political parties: 26 pts (2025). Source: OECD, Survey on Drivers of Trust in Public Institutions 2026 Results: New Zealand country note (29 Jun 2026). Via macrohard.nz, The Hollowing Index, data to 2025-11-05, checked 2026-09-30. https://macrohard.nz/symptoms#trust-civil-service-vs-parties
Trust in the public service (Kiwis Count)Ideology and division 60%60% of Kiwis Count respondents trusted the Public Service in 2026Q2. at level < 50watch < 55 2012Q1 41 · 2026Q2 60 Below level Watch below 55%; at level below 50%. Public Service Commission, Kiwis Count latest quarterly results (Jun 2026 quarter); data.govt.nz, Kiwis Count survey datasetmeasured · data to
Cite Trust in the public service (Kiwis Count)

Trust in the public service (Kiwis Count): 60% (2026Q2). Source: Public Service Commission, Kiwis Count latest quarterly results (Jun 2026 quarter). Via macrohard.nz, The Hollowing Index, data to 2026-06-30, checked 2026-09-30. https://macrohard.nz/symptoms#kiwis-count-public-service-trust
Official Information Act requests answered on timeAccountability 98.4%98.4% of requests to public service agencies answered on time in 2026H1. New Zealand Police is reported separately. at level < 95watch < 96 FY2015/16 90.9 · 2026H1 98.4 Below level Watch below 96% (the 2018–2026 average less two standard deviations); at level below 95% (below every half-year since 2018). Public Service Commission, Latest OIA statistics released (10 Sep 2026); Public Service Commission, OIA statistics data pagemeasured · data to
Cite Official Information Act requests answered on time

Official Information Act requests answered on time: 98.4% (2026H1). Source: Public Service Commission, Latest OIA statistics released (10 Sep 2026). Via macrohard.nz, The Hollowing Index, data to 2026-06-30, checked 2026-09-30. https://macrohard.nz/symptoms#oia-timeliness-agencies
Official Information Act requests answered on time: New Zealand PoliceAccountability 67.5%67.5% of requests to New Zealand Police answered on time in 2026H1. at level < 95watch < 96 FY2015/16 78.3 · 2026H1 67.5 At level Watch below 96% (the 2018–2026 average less two standard deviations); at level below 95% (below every half-year since 2018). Public Service Commission, OIA statistics Jan–Jun 2026; Public Service Commission, OIA statisticsmeasured · data to
Cite Official Information Act requests answered on time: New Zealand Police

Official Information Act requests answered on time: New Zealand Police: 67.5% (2026H1). Source: Public Service Commission, OIA statistics Jan–Jun 2026. Via macrohard.nz, The Hollowing Index, data to 2026-06-30, checked 2026-09-30. https://macrohard.nz/symptoms#oia-timeliness-police