macrohard

All candidate causes

State capture by a private network

A private network gains control over appointments, rule-making or spending and redirects state resources to itself, degrading public goods. Official reviews describe this only as a risk: the Public Service Commission notes concern about 'disproportionate influence through an inside track' and 'regulatory capture'. No official finding establishes that capture has occurred.

Open 0 of 4 support, 0 against; partly supported needs two more.

Timing Untested Does the cause move before the symptom?
No direct measure of capture exists. The Corruption Perceptions Index and the World Bank governance indicators are perception indices built from overlapping expert surveys, not measures of control, so whether the cause moved before the symptom cannot be tested.Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index 2025 results (secondary); World Bank, Worldwide Governance Indicators: control of corruption (secondary)
Distribution Untested Is the symptom worse where the cause is stronger?
No official finding places the degradation where a private network gains, and none rules it out. The demand that public elective waits create for private surgery and health insurance has not been examined.
Peers Mixed Do comparable countries with the same cause show the same symptom?
New Zealand's fall in perceived integrity is shared by high-scoring peers that are not considered captured, so it is not unique. The comparison is of perception scores, not of hollowing symptoms, so it neither confirms nor refutes capture.CPI 2015 to 2025: NZ 91 to 81 (-10); Sweden 89 to 80 (-9); Canada 83 to 75 (-8); Norway 88 to 81 (-7).Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index 2025 results (secondary); Public Service Commission, The Future of Public Service Integrity: Long-term Insights Briefing (2025)
Mechanism Mixed Does an official review document the pathway?
Openings are documented: no lobbying regulation, no beneficial-ownership register, and Public Service Commission concern about an inside track and revolving-door moves. Every official review stops at vulnerability; none finds a network controlling appointments or spending.OECD, Anti-Corruption and Integrity Outlook 2026: New Zealand; Public Service Commission, The Future of Public Service Integrity: Long-term Insights Briefing (2025)

What would settle it: Look for control, not perception: an official finding of improper influence over a spending or regulatory decision, or beneficiaries winning decisions at rates above matched non-beneficiaries. Continued absence as symptoms deepen would refute it as the main cause.

tested · the causes as data

Cite State capture by a private network

macrohard.nz, “State capture by a private network”, The Hollowing Index, tested 2026-09-28. https://macrohard.nz/causes/state-capture