Policy churn: programmes reversed at and between changes of government

A three-year parliamentary term, annual Budgets and three-yearly land-transport policy statements mean large programmes outlast several decision cycles. Programmes are stopped, re-scoped or restarted at changes of government and within terms, which wastes planning spend and raises delivery risk. Te Waihanga says a stop-start approach 'can undermine market confidence and add costs'.

Open 0 of 4 support, 0 against; partly supported needs two more.

Timing Mixed
Distribution Mixed
Peers Mixed
Mechanism Mixed

Timing Mixed Does the cause move before the symptom?: A register of 50 decisions to cancel, repeal, defer or re-scope (47 verified) finds them at every change of government and within every term: 8, 6 and 16 within 12 months of the 2008, 2017 and 2023 elections; 5, 10 and 5 later in those terms. Elective waits worsened from 2016/17, before the largest write-offs.Register tallies: within 12 months of an election 8 + 6 + 16 = 30; later in the 2008-17, 2017-23 and current terms 5 + 10 + 5 = 20; total 50. The terms differ in length (9, 6 and about 3 years).NZ Legislation, Energy (Fuels, Levies, and References) Act 1989, Part 3A repeal note (2008); Inland Revenue, Tax bill introduced: R&D tax credit repeal (2008); NZ Transport Agency, Annual report 2017/18; Auditor-General, Auckland light rail procurement (2020); Ministry for Culture and Heritage, Strong public media; Ministry of Transport, Auckland Light Rail project; NZ Transport Agency, East West Link project history; Health New Zealand, Health targets: 5 and 10 years of results, Q4 2025/26 (2026)
Distribution Mixed Is the symptom worse where the cause is stronger?: Land transport, re-set by a three-yearly policy statement, holds 13 of the register's 19 infrastructure decisions, as predicted. But electricity, largely commercially run, shows a projected dry-year margin breach, and hospitals depend more on annual Budgets than on cancellations. No sector churn index exists.Register infrastructure entries: 19. Land transport 13; hospitals 3; electricity 1; broadband 1; Christchurch rebuild 1.Te Waihanga, From plans to projects: public investment management self-assessment (2025); Transpower, Security of Supply Assessment 2026; NZ Transport Agency, Quarterly report Q1 2018/19
Peers Mixed Do comparable countries with the same cause show the same symptom?: Term length does not separate peers: Victoria terminated East West Link in 2015 at a cost above A$1.1b despite four-year terms. NSW wrote off A$907m of capital projects in 2022-25, 97% in the last two years; the auditor ties A$265m to strategic reviews. NZ's 2019 independent body did not stop reversals.NSW write-offs A$25.2m + 436.4m + 445.4m = 907.0m; (436.4 + 445.4) / 907.0 = 97%. East West Link: above A$1.1b less about A$0.32b resale = at least A$0.78b.Victorian Auditor-General's Office, East West Link Project (2015); Parliament of Australia, Parliamentary Library: Four-year parliamentary terms (2024); Treasury, Cabinet paper: a new independent infrastructure body (2018); Audit Office of NSW, Capital projects 2025, ch. 7 Project cost write-offs
Mechanism Mixed Does an official review document the pathway?: Official sources state a risk, not a measured pathway: stop-start planning 'can undermine market confidence and add costs'. None quantifies the total cost. Reported spend on stopped programmes: public media merger $19.6m, iReX $671m in all, LGWM $180.7m; iReX's estimate had doubled first.iReX cost estimate: 2,954 / 1,450 = 2.04 times, June 2021 to November 2023. No sunk-cost figure was found for the 2008 or 2017 transitions; records are sparse before routine release of Cabinet papers from 2019.Te Waihanga, National Infrastructure Plan, s1 Finding common ground; Te Waihanga, From plans to projects: public investment management self-assessment (2025); Ministry for Culture and Heritage, Strong public media; KiwiRail, KiwiRail concludes iReX ferry replacement project (2025); NZ Transport Agency, OIA response 15198 (2024); Treasury, Cabinet paper CAB-23-SUB-0487: Crown support for Project iReX (2023)

What would settle it: A register of every Crown project over $50m with each decision date and the spend at that point. Compare write-offs within 12 months of every election with other months, across every term, and against cost-estimate growth, then against Australian states.

tested 2026-09-28 · the causes as data

Cite

macrohard.nz, “Policy churn: programmes reversed at and between changes of government”, The Hollowing Index, tested 2026-09-28. https://macrohard.nz/causes/electoral-cycle-churn